Despite the handshake between Martin McGuinness and the Queen, the peace process is still in need of nurturing
First the good news: our report of the amalgamation of a disparate group of republican dissidents opposed to the peace process is not an indication that it is all about to break down, or even that it is under any serious threat. But there is bad news too. The new grouping's description of a "phoney peace" might not ring true, but despite the much-vaunted handshake between Martin McGuinness and the Queen last month, the process is still in need of nurturing. David Cameron should recognise that recent history is furnished with examples of jobs that, left unfinished, turn bad from neglect.
The new grouping brings together the Real IRA, the Derry terror organisation Republican Action Against Drugs and other, smaller, groups. It is thought to include the men whose bombs killed the Catholic PSNI officer Ronan Kerr and seriously wounded another. It has the know-how to inflict damage. It also has an immediate political objective, to strengthen the opposition to the peace process through consolidation of its opponents. Although there is no evidence of anything other than steady support for the power-sharing government of Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness, it would be a mistake to assume the process is unassailable. Recession and spending cuts create an alienated and dispossessed youth which, in cities such as Derry, where youth unemployment runs at 40%, could too easily become a recruiting ground for terror. The generation who forged peace are ageing just as the reality of the Troubles is fading from memory.
It was in recognition of progress made before the 2010 general election that Mr Cameron let it be known privately that the coalition would take a step back from Northern Ireland's political processes. But some of the decisions taken by Owen Paterson, the Northern Ireland secretary, are testing its strength. The day after last month's royal handshake, Mr McGuinness warned Mr Cameron to watch how far he disengaged. It may be human nature for the deputy first minister to feel slighted after the easy access he enjoyed under Labour. But his claim to have met Barack Obama more often than the British prime minister in the past two years is startling, and some decisions have been careless of nationalist opinion. The politics of prisoner release, absolutely integral to the peace negotiations, remain highly sensitive yet the convicted killer Martin Corey was rearrested after his release, while the parole of the Old Bailey bomber Marian Price has been rescinded.
The days of what Mr Blair once described as reimagining the criminal justice system may be over, but London should take care what demands it places on a structure that, for all its successes, is still bedding in.